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‘Nicolas picks up the tab’: The anti-tax movement that has Macron worried

The online campaign evokes uncomfortable memories of the Yellow Vests protests. But it’s unclear whether Marine Le Pen’s far right can profit from it.

By CLEA CAULCUTT
in Paris, France

^{Illustration by Natália Delgado/ POLITICO}

PARIS — A major anti-tax movement is gaining momentum online in France, putting President Emmanuel Macron’s government on alert as it prepares for a potentially explosive budget showdown this autumn.

“Nicolas qui paie” (Nicolas picks up the tab) has become a rallying call for white-collar workers who feel they are being overtaxed to fund a crumbling welfare system.

That’s a significant political factor when Macron’s centrist liberals are on the back foot and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is eyeing the presidency in 2027.

The origins of “Nicolas” are often traced back to an inflammatory meme from 2020, where he was portrayed as a despairing 30-year-old middle-class worker with his head in his hands. The meme suggested he was footing the bill for pensioners “Chantal and Bernard” to enjoy cruises, as well as paying for benefits for 25-year-old “Karim” and development aid to Africa.

The concept of Nicolas has more recently become a reference point in France’s political debate, and one big question is whether Le Pen can pick up more votes from among the often resistant “Nicolas” contingent, who have tended to see her policies as more aligned with the interests of baby-boomers, “Chantal and Bernard.”

According to data from monitoring agency Visibrain, shared with POLITICO, more than 503,000 tweets on the “Nicolas qui paie” phenomenon have been posted since the start of the year, with activity spiking sharply since June.

Nicolas — a name common among boys born in the 1980s — has come to symbolize the frustrations of France’s middle classes: too “rich” to receive benefits, yet not wealthy enough to escape the burden of rising taxes. The slogan has at times taken on a darker, anti-immigration tone, with some posts accusing foreigners of exploiting France’s social welfare system.

The trend has become so significant that the Elysée Palace is now monitoring it closely. “We’re paying attention to movements such as ‘Nicolas qui paie’,” said an adviser from the Elysée, who was granted anonymity for protocol reasons.

“It can be seen either as a populist far-right movement or a warning sign that the people’s acceptance of taxes is wearing thin,” he said. “We think it’s both, and a sign that taxes mustn’t go up.”

The timing is delicate. Prime Minister François Bayrou is pushing an austere 2026 budget that aims for €44 billion of belt-tightening, with spending cuts and new levies. It also includes politically incendiary measures such as removing two of the 11 public holidays in France.

“It’s going to heat up in the autumn,” said a French official. “We’ve got to cut spending by 30 billion, and we’re not good at cutting.”

Yellow Vest flashbacks

Once confined to fringe extreme-right groups, the expression “Nicolas qui paie” has broken into the mainstream in recent months.

According to OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart, Macron’s camp is “right to be worried” about the movement. “They know it is reaching the heart of their electorate, successful young people who believe in putting a lot of effort into work, and who voted Macron.”

For the French president, “Nicolas qui paie” evokes uncomfortable memories of another grassroots movement, the Yellow Vests in 2018 and 2019. That anti-tax campaign emerged on Facebook and led to weeks of violent protests that forced Macron to make rare concessions, backtracking on a planned fuel tax hike and walking back a tax increase on pensioners.

Ironically, the latter was precisely the kind of measure that might have appealed to today’s frustrated “Nicolas” generation.

The Yellow Vests and the “Nicolas qui paie” cohort are different demographics, and it’s hard to predict how such spontaneous movements evolve and, crucially, how much public support they will get.

But another trend is also already worrying the authorities. Online calls to stage protests and “shut down the country” on Sept. 10 are multiplying, gathering traction among anti-Macron groups online.

A political wildcard

As the “Nicholas” movement gains traction, some politicians, even within Macron’s government, are attempting to capitalize on its appeal among frustrated middle-class voters.

Hardline Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau last month criticized Bayrou’s upcoming budget, saying he would make new proposals to boost incomes, warning that otherwise “Nicolas will keep on paying.”

Meanwhile, Éric Ciotti, a conservative firebrand lawmaker, quipped in June that “it doesn’t matter” that the Paris Olympic Games went massively over budget, because “it’s Nicolas who is picking up the tab”.

But according to the pollster Jeanbart, the question is whether the movement signals a deeper shift, with younger, middle-income generations turning away from mainstream parties, potentially toward far-right groups, including Le Pen’s National Rally.

“Historically, it’s this type of population that the National Rally has struggled to attract,” he said. “If they can break through to these types of voters, they might get close to attracting a majority of the electorate.”

Converting online discontent into votes, however, may prove difficult. While Le Pen remains a frontrunner for the 2027 presidential race, her party’s staunch defense of pensioners’ rights and welfare protections could clash with the priorities of “Nicolas” movement supporters.

Whether Le Pen has the answers, or not, may be beside the point because for many French taxpayers, politics is increasingly about venting frustration with the system.

Océane Herrero contributed reporting.