Five months ago, Portugal’s snap national election saw the far-right Chega party become the second-largest force in the country’s parliament. On Sunday, 9.3 million Lusitanian voters are headed back to the polls, this time for nationwide local elections.

The race is set to be a nail-biter, with the top candidates in the big cities of Lisbon and Porto tied in the polls. Meanwhile, the far right is poised to make major advances in the country’s neglected southern and interior regions, where voters are increasingly backing the party’s antiestablishment and anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Though boasting lawmakers in both the Portuguese and European parliaments, Chega has yet to conquer any city halls. Sunday’s elections could be decisive in expanding the far-right party’s presence beyond Lisbon and Brussels. They may also underscore a European trend of extremist forces consolidating power, campaigning on mainstream politicians’ inability to tackle issues like the bloc-wide housing crisis.

It’s the housing crisis, stupid

Indeed, the top issue in every Portuguese city — no matter its size or location — is the high cost of housing.

The problem is particularly critical in Lisbon, where average home prices have shot up by nearly 80 percent over the last five years and are currently hovering at €5,769 per square meter. Incumbent Mayor Carlos Moedas — a former European commissioner — has sought to justify his tenure by drawing attention to the 2,881 families his administration provided with new homes, but unimpressed critics estimate 150,000 homes are needed.

Moedas has also been criticized for not doing enough to stop locals from being displaced by wealthy tourists. His challenger, Socialist Party candidate Alexandra Leitão, has made tackling excessive tourism a top priority, and is promising to crack down on short-term rentals and impose a moratorium on new hotels until the city can devise a plan to deal with the challenge. 

The two are currently neck and neck in the polls, but one issue that could break the tie is discontent over the mayor’s handling of last month’s deadly funicular disaster. This week, victims’ families complained that no one from City Hall had reached out to them since the catastrophe, and Moedas is under fire for his controversial decision to delay any hearings regarding the accident until after the elections.

Even if he isn’t punished by voters, the crash could still complicate his path to a second term: The mayor isn’t expected to secure a governing majority, and his ability to form either a minority or coalition government will hinge on Chega’s support. Given that the far-right party’s lead candidate Bruno Mascarenhas brought an unsuccessful censure motion against Moedas for his response to the disaster, negotiations could prove tricky.

Meanwhile, in Porto …

In Portugal’s second-largest city, Sunday’s election marks the first time center-right Mayor Rui Moreira won’t be on the ballot in 12 years. Instead, conservative Pedro Duarte is and former Member of the European Parliament and Socialist Party candidate Manuel Pizarro are locked in a tight race that is similarly dominated by the housing crisis.

Duarte wants to use tax breaks to goad the owners of the city’s 20,000 vacant homes to rent them out at affordable prices, but Pizarro argues his own plan to build 5,000 affordable homes on municipal land could be implemented much faster.

Duarte also has a radical proposal to raise the tourist tax to make public transport free for all city residents — but Pizarro’s counterplan to slash the speed limit on Porto’s innermost ring road could prove more controversial.

With neither candidate expected to secure a governing majority, Chega may ultimately determine the winning vision.

Beyond the biggest cities

As the most-voted party in 60 cities in last May’s snap national election, Chega’s candidates are now poised to enjoy similar success in many of those municipalities.

Polls indicate far-right influencer and MP Rita Matias is in a three-way tie to govern Sintra, Portugal’s second-most populous municipality, where housing prices are increasing due to growing demand from displaced Lisbon residents. Chega’s candidates have even greater odds of winning Elvas, a former fortress city on the Spanish border, and semirural communities like Viana do Alentejo and Benavente.

But the far-right party is most focused on the Algarve region, where locals are struggling to balance the country’s lowest average wages with a steadily increasing cost of living due to the presence of foreign tourists and retirees. By promoting the narrative that seasonal migrants are to blame for local woes, Chega has gained traction among southern electors who feel abandoned by the hyper-centralized Portuguese state.

And while the latest polls still suggest conventional parties will stave off Chega’s bid to take Faro, the far right could win in other southern cities and gain enough council seats to make some municipalities virtually ungovernable. 

Polls will close on the Portuguese mainland at 8 p.m. GMT, with exit poll projections published an hour later, when voting ends in the Azores archipelago. The country’s electoral system is remarkably efficient, so a final tally is expected before midnight.