European countries bordering Russia should prepare for the possibility that Washington could draw down its troop numbers in the area by building up their own military capacity, the president of Estonia told POLITICO.

Alar Karis said he had lobbied U.S. President Donald Trump on the importance of keeping troops in Eastern Europe when the two men sat next to each other for two hours during the April funeral of Pope Francis.

“I explained everything,” the Estonian leader said at the country’s representation to the European Union. “The presence of U.S. troops in Estonia — not only in Estonia, in Europe — is crucial, and it’s important for the United States, not just Europe.”

But while Karis has been reassured by some of Trump’s statements, namely his vow this week to keep U.S. troops in Poland, the Estonian leader underscored it was still “very difficult to predict” what Washington would do in the Baltics.

Countries like Estonia “have to be prepared for any scenario,” while the risk of a drawdown from NATO’s largest member “means we should build up our own capacity,” added Karis. As president of Estonia, he is commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and represents it in international relations.

The U.S. currently has some 2,000 soldiers stationed in the Baltic states (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia) as part of a military buildup in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Pentagon is currently reviewing its global force posture and is expected to unveil the results at the end of this month. While the contents aren’t known, the review is being prepared under the direction of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, an outspoken proponent of reducing the U.S. presence in Europe.

‘Trump’s temper’

Karis’ visit to Brussels — where he met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte — coincided with a gathering of EU leaders in the “coalition of the willing” that is working on security guarantees for Ukraine. The gathering prompted a spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry to say that Moscow won’t accept any foreign troops in Ukraine as part of a potential ceasefire.

But Karis said Moscow should not have any say in the matter: “Russia started this aggression … The answer is definitely not.”

The EU leaders were due to present the conclusions of their work on security guarantees to Trump on Thursday evening. Asked whether he expected Trump to raise the pressure on Putin, Karis — whose country has pledged troops to the initiative — said that “much is dependent on Trump’s temper.”

“At this moment Estonia and many European countries support what Trump is doing,” Karis said. “He has been discussing with Putin so many times and nothing really happens … I think he is already losing his temper.”

Karis arrived in Brussels just a few days after an EU delegation building in Kyiv was damaged by a Russian missile strike — an event he saw as no accident. “The only mistake Putin made was starting the war,” he said.

He went on to warn that European countries “should not be naive” regarding the Kremlin’s intention to further test Western democracies in the coming months, such as by election meddling in the upcoming Oct. 3-4 Czech parliamentary election. But he pushed back on the idea that because Estonia and other Baltic states share a border with Russia, they should be more concerned by Moscow’s expansionism.

“Modern missiles can start from Moscow and end up in The Hague and Brussels in just a few minutes,” he said.

Talking, convincing

As one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters around the European Council table, Karis said he hoped Kyiv would be able to begin formal negotiations to join the bloc before the end of Denmark’s rotating presidency, which concludes Dec. 31.

Asked how the bloc could overcome the opposition of Hungary, which is currently blocking Ukraine’s accession, he said: “We should work on this one country … Maybe we should talk more to [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán], not just label him, to find a solution.”

Another possibility: “Hungary leaves the room and we make a decision,” he said.

Karis took a similar line vis-à-vis Israel, with several European countries pushing to downgrade trade relations or remove European funding for Israeli research over human rights violations in Gaza. The Estonian leader — who met his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog in Estonia last month, and is a molecular geneticist by training — said he believed in “convincing” Israeli leaders to stop humanitarian violations in Gaza.

Asked if he supported an initiative to cut off European research funding to Israel, he added: “Israeli scientists are extremely good. We cut off also something for ourselves if we start these kinds of things [cutting off Horizon funding for Israel as the European Commission has proposed].

“There are other solutions. Talking and convincing,” he said.