Just as Andrew had claimed in his Newsnight interview in 2019 that he had been “too honourable” to break off his close friendship with the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein by phone, so again he tried, in 103 words printed under a royal coat of arms, to depict himself as a man of honour. “I have decided, as I always have, to put my duty to my family and country first,” the statement said. Most people who know Andrew, and much of the public, think that “honour” has been missing in action since his service in the Falklands in 1982.

• Prince Andrew forced to renounce Duke of York title

Some will see the announcement as a decisive move by the King to draw a line under the murky sex scandal engulfing the prince’s friendship with Epstein, a convicted paedophile, and allegations — which the prince denies — of having had sex three times with Virginia Giuffre when she was 17.

When Andrew stepped back from public life after Newsnight, the royal family hoped the scandal would fade away. It didn’t. In February 2022, when Andrew agreed a multimillion-pound settlement with Giuffre — part-funded by his mother, Elizabeth II, and Charles, admitting no liability but prompting the Queen to remove his HRH styling and his military titles and patronages — the family again hoped that it would all be done and dusted. It wasn’t.

Now Charles, 76, an embattled King who is still having weekly treatment for cancer and navigating endless family dramas, hopes this knuckle-rap for Andrew will be the end of it. It won’t. Why? Because with the publication of Giuffre’s posthumous memoir, and many more details expected to emerge from the “Epstein files” in the US, the drip, drip, drip of scandal will keep coming.

Nothing has really changed for Andrew, who, according to visitors to Royal Lodge, spends much of his time playing video games. He is still a technically a duke — only an act of parliament would strip him of that title. He is still technically an HRH, a Knight of the Garter, the highest order of British chivalry, and he is still the Earl of Inverness and Baron Killyleagh. In palace-speak, his titles are “in abeyance” and “extant but inactive” — a bit like Andrew, who will continue to live at Royal Lodge, his sprawling mansion on the Windsor estate that he shares with his ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson.

Ferguson can no longer call herself the Duchess of York, but has already been known for decades as “Fergie.” Andrew, 65, has a private lease arrangement with the crown estate until 2078, so Charles can’t kick him out of Royal Lodge, despite having tried for years. What remains a mystery is how Andrew manages to pay the rent and cover the maintenance of the house.

• How Prince William will change the monarchy, by those close to him

As Andrew’s dukedom hung in the balance last week, courtiers pointed out that he was still a prince, having been born the son of a monarch, and that, to many, “prince” sounded more regal than “duke”. Bluntly, as the comedian Munya Chawawa said: “A privileged man becomes slightly less privileged.”

Could Elizabeth have nipped this in the bud if she had been firmer six years ago, and stripped him of all his titles in 2019? Perhaps. But as one of her courtiers says, she couldn’t bring herself to do it. “It is very hard for a mother to humiliate her son — far easier for a brother to do it. That story is as old as the Bible.”

Some will see Andrew’s further demotion as a sign of strength in Charles, who is said to have considered the exposure of his brother’s lie, that he had broken off contact with Epstein in 2010, a tipping point. A grim email published this month, sent by Andrew to Epstein in 2011 and telling the financier that they would “play some more soon”, has raised questions about what else Andrew might have lied about. The email was sent the day after the infamous photograph was published of Andrew with his arm around Giuffre. Others will see the latest development as a royal fudge, the empty gesture of another monarch showing their weak spot with an errant, embarrassing relative.

Andrew, Virginia Giuffre and Ghislaine Maxwell

US DISTRICT COURT/SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The next monarch will be more ruthless. Buckingham Palace says the Prince of Wales was “consulted” on the decision, but it is understood that he is not satisfied with the outcome and knows the “Andrew problem” will be in his in-tray at some point. When William is King, Andrew will be banned from all elements of royal life. He will excluded from public and private royal events, including the coronation, and banned from most state occasions.

• King tells Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson to miss royal Christmas

Since Charles’s accession, despite ongoing scandal, Andrew has been allowed to attend “family occasions” with senior royals, including Christmas at Sandringham in 2022 and 2023 — latterly with Ferguson — as well as Easter services at St George’s Chapel, Windsor and the Duchess of Kent’s funeral at Westminster Cathedral last month. William, 43, considers his uncle a “threat” and a reputational risk to the monarchy, and is understood to be concerned about the message Andrew’s presence at royal events sends to victims of sexual abuse. In April, Giuffre took her own life in Australia, aged 41.

Kensington Palace declined to comment.

It is understood that William will also ban Ferguson from royal events. In an interview in March 2011, she said she had made a “terrible, terrible error of judgment” in accepting £15,000 from Epstein to pay off debts, and added: “I abhor paedophilia.” But it was revealed last month that she had subsequently sent an email to Epstein apologising for publicly criticising him, calling him her “steadfast, generous and supreme friend”.

Sarah Ferguson will no longer be invited to royal events

MAX MUMBY/INDIGO/GETTY IMAGES

Ferguson has said of her unconventional arrangement with Andrew: “We are the most contented divorced couple in the world.” A former courtier who knows them both well says: “She can be naive but has a decent heart. He’s stupid without one [a heart].” No scandal seems to weaken their bond, and losing their titles is another humiliation they will bear together. William remains close to their daughters, his cousins Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie, whose titles and status are unaffected, and will continue to include them in family and official events.

“We’re definitely in uncharted territory for royal scandals,” says a seasoned former courtier, who weathered a few. How did the monarchy get here? The reality is that neither Andrew nor the royal family found anything useful for him to do after he left the navy in 2001 that didn’t put him in the path of dodgy despots and alleged Chinese spies. Vast sums of taxpayers’ money was spent jetting “Airmiles Andy” around the world for a decade in his role as the UK’s “special representative” for trade and investment, another title he was forced to relinquish in 2011 as concerns grew about his friendship with Epstein. The writing should have been on the wall for the royal family then, and the rogue “spare” should have been stopped in his tracks.

• A timeline of Prince Andrew’s scandals — from Jeffrey Epstein to spy case

He sailed on, however, so the Andrew problem has blighted two reigns and threatens to indelibly stain the Carolean era, just as it clouded the final years of the Elizabethan age. There is now the risk that the scandals surrounding Andrew, and the fallout from the Duke and Duchess of Sussexes’ departure from royal life, have had more impact on the public consciousness than Charles’s laudable work on the environment, social equality, community cohesion and interfaith relations.

The King, who did not see his brother last week while the statement was being drawn up (exerting pressure instead on the phone), acted in the hope of a quick solution. He did not want to take up the government’s time, as the required act of parliament would to formally strip Andrew of his titles.

Above all, Charles hopes it will refocus minds on the work of his family. On Friday, William visited the London Ambulance Service to mark its 60th anniversary, and on Wednesday Charles hosted indigenous leaders at St James’s Palace. But Andrew stole the headlines, and will continue to do so — a frustration for the King and his heir.

• Andrew Lownie: Secrecy has shrouded the royals for too long

“A clear line has been drawn so hopefully we can move on,” said a source close to Charles, who will become the first monarch to pray with a Pope since the Reformation when he visits the Vatican this week.

Others in royal circles are more realistic. “It has clouded everything,” another source said. “It’s really important that people see the work of the wider family, but at the moment, this is still a huge distraction. The King is about to do one of his most important state visits to the Holy See, but it comes against this backdrop and it’s very difficult for him.”

The monarchy has weathered plenty of storms in recent years and a friend of the royal family believes it will battle through this latest torrent. “It’s clearly damaging, embarrassing and distasteful,” they said. “But the King, the Queen, the Prince and Princess of Wales, Anne, Edward and Sophie are all still fulfilling their roles. They have public support and the institution will remain a central part of British life.”

In a recent interview with the Canadian actor and comedian Eugene Levy, William said he wanted to ensure the institution he will one day lead was “fit for purpose”, saying: “Change is on my agenda. Change for good. I don’t fear it.”

There will need to be big institutional changes to future-proof the monarchy against a repeat of the mistakes made along the way in the sorry, sordid saga of the prince formerly known as a duke. What lessons might William take away from this latest chapter, which almost certainly has not yet closed? Be much firmer, move much faster — and find something useful for a spare to do.